Remember the Big Tax Cuts? The IRS Just Announced a Surprising Change That Will Probably Make Yours Smaller

Most Americans expect to pay less in federal taxes this year, after President Trump and Republicans in Congress passed a last-minute tax bill last December.

But thanks to a rule change that the Internal Revenue Service made Thursday, a lot of Americans will reportedly be paying a bit more in taxes in 2019 than they thought they would–and even more in later years. Eventually, maybe a lot more.

It all comes down to a simple math equation–or more accurately a series of simple math equations. Because the tax law uses particular dollar amounts to establish thresholds for different things–tax brackets, the amounts of deductions, etc.–the IRS has to adjust many of these numbers for inflation each year. 

Traditionally, the IRS has used a calculation called CPI-U to compute inflation. (CPI stands for “consumer price index,” and the U stands for “urban.”) But besides cutting taxes, the law also required the IRS to change to a different calculation.

So, on Thursday, the IRS announced how it’s making this big change, to something called “chained CPI.” The difference between the two, as The Wall Street Journal explains, is that under “chained CPI,” inflation moves more slowly.

So, legal thresholds like the standard deduction that taxpayers are eligible to take, and the income needed to move into a higher tax bracket, will go up more slowly than they otherwise would.

“The result,” the Journal’s Richard Rubin writes, while noting that it’s unusual for the IRS to issue guidance like this so late in the year: “More income gets taxed at all, or taxed at higher rates.”

It’s difficult to calculate exactly how much any individual taxpayer will see their taxes go up as a result of this change, since everyone’s circumstances are different, and usually change from year to year.

. But Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation says it will cost U.S. taxpayers $133.5 billion over a decade.

The whole thing will be gradual–meaning a slight increase in taxes in 2019, and bigger increases in later years as the difference between CPI-U and chained CPI becomes more pronounced over time.

Here’s an example of how it all plays out:

  • For 2019, the standard deduction for married couples will be $24,400 now that the IRS is using chained CPI.
  • If CPI-U were still in effect, the standard deduction would have been $24,550, according to data from the conservative Tax Foundation that was reported by the Journal.
  • Since taxpayers would now be entitled to a slightly lower deduction, they’d pay more taxes: about $36 more if they were in the 24 percent tax bracket.

Obviously, $36 isn’t exactly the end of the world, but the amount increases in later years, as the gap between the new “chained CPI” and CPI-U becomes wider.

By 2025, the whole thing will mean that 8.9 percent of taxpayers will pay more under the new law than they would have if there hadn’t been any change, according to data cited by the Journal.

If the IRS didn’t have to make this change, only about 4.8 percent of taxpayers would pay more under the 2017 tax law than they did before–largely residents of so-called blue states, who lost the ability to deduct state and local taxes from their federal taxes.

Interestingly, the Journal reports that because this change is basically a different way of calculating a math problem, rather than a change in the law itself, it’s likely that most taxpayers never would have realized they were paying more.

But it’s happening, and it means that after the IRS’s action, the tax cut apparently won’t be as big as people thought it would. If you’re counting on that money yourself–or if you’re a business owner who hoped that your clients would have a bit more disposable income to spend–you’ll want to be aware of it.

19 Books Everyone Who Wants to Succeed Should Read

Reading is a habit which is highly correlated with success. It’s good for your brain’s wiring, elevates your thinking and can even prolong your life. Need ideas for which titles to get your hands on next? Look no further.

1. Dimensions of Citizenship, Edited by Nick Axel, Nikolaus Hirsch, Ann Lui and Mimi Zeiger

“Dimensions of Citizenship is a colorful, digestible guide to the late 21st century and the role that architects play or don’t play in shaping our collective understanding of citizenship. Connecting theory with social, ecological and aesthetic concerns, [this book] maps the social dimensions of indifference across people and cultures making it a compelling read for any entrepreneur or business leader who is passionate about instilling ethics and values into their work.”

–Milton S.F. Curry, dean of the University of Southern California School of Architecture, which has been educating students in architecture for over 100 years and is currently ranked 12th in the 2018-2019 DesignIntelligence Top 25 Undergraduate Programs

2. The Five Dysfunctions of a Team: A Leadership Fable by Patrick Lencioni

“Lencioni’s model underscores the critical need to put into practice essential team-building lessons that every company executive should strive to master. This book has been incredibly influential in how our company now builds, attracts and retains productive teams. Lencioni incorporates modern business fiction to make his point about why teams fail and how to prevent them from failing. He asserts five dysfunctions, in the form of a fable, which can cause lack of teamwork: absence of trust, fear of conflict, lack of commitment, avoidance of accountability, and inattention to results. As an entrepreneur, I’ve learned that everything we do–for our employees, our clients, our brand–is based on the success of our team’s combined capability to deliver on whatever the task is at hand. This book does a great job of expressing what it takes to build a successful business. I would recommend it to anyone who wants to learn how to lead an effective team.”

–Vikas Khorana, cofounder and chief technology officer of Ntooitive, a digital ad agency and resource for publishers with triple-digit year-over-year revenue growth that serves as a software partner for some of the largest newspapers across the U.S. including the New York Daily News, Chicago Tribune, and San Diego Union-Tribune

3. Resilience: The Science of Mastering Life’s Greatest Challenges by Steven M. Southwick and Dennis S. Charney

“I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to say most people are constantly experiencing stressful events in their lives. In the relief and development field, facing difficult and traumatic events such as devastating natural disasters, war, or civil conflict comes with the territory and it can be a lot to handle. Reading this book about resilience over the summer was helpful because it dives into how people experience and process traumatic events and explores both positive and negative coping strategies. It takes a psychosocial-meets-medical approach and even features people like John McCain and how he was able to use his horrendous experiences as a POW to give hope and inspire so many others. As CEO, I think it’s important to be aware of the mental health needs of both my staff and the people we serve, and this book provided powerful insights and practical applications. It was so good, in fact, that I don’t have it anymore; I passed it along to another CEO so they could benefit from it, too.”

–John Lyon, CEO of World Hope International, a relief and development organization that works with vulnerable and exploited communities in 15 countries to alleviate poverty, suffering, and injustice

4. The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People by Stephen Covey

“The title of this book first grabbed me because one of my early mentors would frequently remind me of the difference between being right and being effective. I found many of the principles synergistic with my experiences in building and leading teams for new business ventures and it has stuck with me. Effectiveness starts with being proactive and prioritizing that which leads to the intended outcome, leaving behind that which is urgent but not important to the goal while being aware of the strengths realized in a team that shares a vision because you invested in them.”

–Bill Waid, general manager of Decision Management at FICO, a provider of predictive analytics and data science, with over 185 patents in the U.S. and abroad, to improve operational decisions and empower people and businesses in 100 countries

5. Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World by Adam Grant

“[T]his book provides a ton of insight via case studies on the creative and strategic process from ideation to launch. What’s really cool about this book is the range of topics and industries covered from the arts to technological inventions. Grant highlights both successes and failures tying them all back to the same core principles and their respective justifications [which] are very well researched and evidence-based. As we are a relatively data-driven run organization, his point on becoming a prisoner of prototype really resonated with me and helped me to be cognizant of the blinders that can result from experience. His breakdown of output quantity and its correlation to success and the use of strategic procrastination at the right time are tactics that have helped me overcome many roadblocks and challenges I’ve faced as an entrepreneur. This book provides great insight in a creative fashion and I recommend it to any aspiring entrepreneur.”

–Victor Davanzo, founder and CEO of RSP Nutrition, a nutrition brand distributed at retailers such as Amazon, Bodybuilding.com, GNC, and Vitamin Shoppe, in over 5,000 U.S. retail locations and over 80 countries

6. Tools of Titans by Tim Ferriss

“This book has been hugely influential in shaping my mindset. It’s a life-changing collection of routines, tools, and learnings gathered from interviews with world-class people from across the globe. The book touches on everything from business to health to wisdom from conversations with people like Tony Robbins, Paulo Coelho, and Arnold Schwarzenegger. It’s one of those books that you cover in highlighter and sticky notes, and you need to revisit every few months. It’s taught me to be a better leader, to invest in relationships above all else, and to step out of my comfort zone. One of my biggest takeaways was from the interview with Jocko Willink, retired Navy SEAL Commander. He says that he responds to every situation with the word ‘good.’ Adopting this habit has helped me stay focused through failure. We got beat? Good. We learned and we have something to prove.”

–Andy McCune, cofounder of Unfold, an app with over 11 million users that creates social media stories with minimal and easy-to-use templates with users including Equinox, REVOLVE, Soho House, and Topshop along with Emma Watson, Katy Perry, and Selena Gomez

7. Ego is the Enemy by Ryan Holiday

“Having your head the right place day in and day out is essential for successfully driving your business forward. This is a book I consistently revisit as it helps me keep a clear head with respects to moving forward aggressively and logically in our business so that I’m not making decisions based on ego or emotion. The book is full of historical stories and antidotes about the treacherous nature of an unchecked ego (while at the same time not discounting the importance of confidence). The book is a consistent encouraging reminder that you need to keep working, not pay too much attention to your own hype, and keep in mind the big reason why you got started doing what you are doing.”

–Michael Roussell, Ph.D. and cofounder of Para Bellum Partners, the parent company of memory supplement brands Neuro Coffee and Neutein, which has experienced a 50 percent growth in sales over the last year

8. Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand

“I love this book because it philosophically celebrates capitalism, but more specifically the entrepreneurial spirit. It values using individual talent, intuition and ambition to be successful, versus being a work cog and obediently following in someone else footsteps.”

–Alix Greenberg, founder and CEO of ArtSugar, a charity and Instagram-driven, affordable contemporary art retailer available on ArtSugar.co, Wayfair, Zola, Dormify and select local retailers which it has experienced a 45 percent growth in month to month revenue in 2018

9. Success Through A Positive Mental Attitude by Napoleon Hill and W. Clement Stone

“My mentor presented me with this life-changing manual that taught me how to crack the entrepreneur’s Da Vinci code. It’s a distillation of all the great principles of higher achievement in one easy access reference book that is absolutely packed with positive ideas that will lift your thought process to a higher vibrational level. Thoughts, ideas, and action are essentially what make up the sum total of an individual’s life… so the 17 principles outlined in this book have helped me to focus my ‘attention on the things that I want and off the things that I don’t want.’ Thought control is the ultimate discipline…and this book shows the student exactly how to ‘direct your thoughts, control your emotions, and ordain your destiny.’ After interviews with over 500 men and women of accomplishment, the authors discovered the secrets to success and then gave those principles to future generations lucky enough to discover this hidden gem.”

–Roy Taylor, seven-figure millennial serial entrepreneur and cryptocurrency investor recognized in Entrepreneur as one of 2018’s top 10 entrepreneurs under 30 who helped market crypto projects with budgets over $15 million in 2018

10. Small Giants by Bo Burlingham

“Small Giants was a great read and helped me redefine what it meant to be successful. It taught me that as an entrepreneur I don’t have to have 4,000 employees, don’t have to go public, and don’t have to become something that my team isn’t. After reading this book, I doubled-down on what I liked doing best and felt better and more successful as a result.”

–Eric Termuende, cofounder of NoW Innovations, a movement to democratize access to innovative people and culture and operational practices of leading organizations around the world, as well as an award-winning entrepreneur and speaker who has spoken on more than 200 stages

11. The 12 Week Year by Brian P. Moran and Michael Lennington

“This is the absolute book for the person who wants to achieve more in less time. The premise of the book is to think of each 12 weeks as a calendar year, and to get extremely focused on the few goals that you want to achieve that would be the most impactful for those 12 weeks. As an entrepreneur, it’s easy to get distracted with tons of new ideas, tactics and strategies, and essentially get nothing done. I was able to focus and cut out all distractions from things that were not a priority as a result. Prior to reading 12 Week Year, my company broke six figures in its first year (2016). After reading this book, my company generated 38 percent of 2016’s revenue in January of 2017 alone.”

–Kevin Stimpson, branding expert and founder of Strive & Grind, a millennial-run branding company which has helped hundreds of clients across world

12. Blue Ocean Strategy by W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne

“If you’re going to work hard on something, you have to first make sure that your ship is headed in the right direction. You do this with a great strategy. It’s tough to succeed in business, but the best way to win is to have a strategy that differentiates you from your competition and creates a market of your own. Authors Kim and Mauborgne give a simple yet powerful exercise in Blue Ocean Strategy to help you do just that… Whether it’s for company direction, a new product, or any business initiative, [this book] will have you thinking about what things matter and what doesn’t so you can differentiate yourself in the right way and not have to battle on price. Start there and set yourself up for big success.”

–Austin Netzley, founder and CEO of 2X, a systems and operations focused consulting company helping entrepreneurs and small businesses generate over $44 million in sales in the first 10 months of company existence

13. Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey A. Moore

“[This is] one of my go-to books… [It offers g]reat pointers on finding market relevance and understanding consumer types and behavior.”

–Igor Bekker, cofounder of MADE OF, a brand which offers transparency in manufacturing by disclosing the whole product development from ingredient origin, actual test results and location of factories in the U.S., which has managed e-commerce businesses over $100 million in revenue for brands like Alex & Ani, Swatch and others

14. The 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene

“[This] is the best book ever written on practical human psychology (I recommend the pocket-size concise version). This book hits you with sucker-punch after sucker-punch of insights into human character and behaviour that seem blindingly obvious in retrospect. I read it when I was living on social welfare, and it gave me a grounding to go to meetings (and close) venture capital and angel investors at a time when I had never even had a real job. It also helped me run and manage a team, become memorable and well-liked, and displaced the natural selfishness we all carry around with us. Absolutely essential not just in business but in life, too.”

–Vin Clancy, founder of the online magazines Planet Ivy and Screen Robot, which received nearly 20 million visitors in their first two years

15. Rich Dad Poor Dad by Richard Kiyosaki

“This book was the ultimate turning point for me as a teenager who knew that their life wasn’t on the normal trajectory, of school, university, and a typical nine to five job. It completely changed my mindset towards business and altered the way I perceived failure. When most may see failure as an obstacle, this book teaches you that in every failure there is a lesson for success. This mantra has been one that I have lived by throughout starting and scaling my business. I read this book over and over and still learn new things about how to look at success.”

–Sergio Abinaked, cofounder of Simply Carbon Fiber, a brand which designs and produces unique carbon fiber products at affordable prices and on track to hit $6 million this year in revenue

16. Bluefishing by Steve Sims

“If you like no-nonsense, keep-it-real books, Steve Sims has written a masterpiece. There’s a reason they call him a modern-day Wizard of Oz. He just gets things done–from getting a couple married by the Pope to walking an exclusive red carpet, people in the know call Steve to make it happen. [This book] lays out his methods and mindsets. It’s way beyond out of the box thinking. His take on getting ugly, staying totally transparent and building killer relationships will help any business maximize its impact and increase the bottom line. It’s definitely made me think even bigger.”

–Brad Lea, founder and CEO of LightSpeed VT, a virtual training company that has worked with over 700 business leaders impacting millions around the globe

17. From No Crypto to Know Crypto by Wayne Marcel

“It’s a genuine blueprint of how to get started in crypto, which helps mass adaption.”

–Darryll DiPietro, founder of Coincierge Wallet, a mobile private key wallet with over 20,000 supported crypto assets and capable of 250,000 transactions per second

18. When Breath Becomes Air by Paul Kalanithi

“Being a founder, it’s easy to let our lives get consumed by the company. Reading this book, a memoir, written by a young neurosurgeon with terminal cancer, lent me some important perspective on life. Like him, we are all working in the extremes for some promise of a better future, but this book is a reminder that such a future may never come to pass. Not only should we endeavor to enjoy our life as it is now, but we should make sure that whatever means we take, should not need to be justified by some end at a later date, but rather be justified in their own right. It is also a very quick read, so most will find it easy to fit it into a commute or plane ride.”

–Jason Kim, CTO of Bombfell, a subscription service using AI and professional stylists to help men upgrade and maintain their wardrobes, working with JCPenney as the 15th fastest growing start-up in New York City in 2017

19. The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck by Mark Manson

“‘The key to a good life is not giving a f*ck about more; it’s giving a f*ck about less.’ This book validated something I’ve felt for a long time but haven’t always known how to act on: focus on what’s truly important and let everything else slide. For me, that comes in three parts: filtering out the noise, finding balance and owning who I am. I’ve had to admit that I don’t really care about sports, that I need a lot of sleep (seriously) and that I will never wear a suit to work. Not giving a f*ck can feel very empowering. In a time where people are feeling more and more anxious about the world around them, Manson says it best: ‘too many f***s is bad for your mental health.'”

–Dan Ucko, director of content for Nectar Sleep, an e-commerce mattress brand with more than 250,000 customers in under two years

You're Thinking About LinkedIn Connections All Wrong

LinkedIn is not about how many connections you have. It’s about how well you know your network and how well you tend to it, so that your career or business flourish. Period.

Recently, I encountered two people who see LinkedIn so differently, like aggressive offensive and defensive endeavors. A CEO of a small company asked me if there was some sort of software program that would copy over all the connections his business partners had over to his profile and vice versa. He wanted everyone in his small company to “know” the same people.

Then a financial services professional told me that she doesn’t accept connections from those she knows at competing firms, because she doesn’t want those people to see her connections, many of whom are clients. Neither of these folks logs into LinkedIn often — or ever — so I gently tried to tell them they’re going about it all wrong. 

Quality connections, not quantity

LinkedIn isn’t about collecting connections or shunning them. It’s not about abundance or scarcity. You can’t go about it out of fear — fear of not having enough connections or having the wrong connections or connections who will steal your clients away. It’s not how LinkedIn works. It’s not how life works. LinkedIn — and life — is about relationships. Like any relationship, you get out of LinkedIn what you put in.

Know your connections

It starts with knowing your connections. That means having some rules around which LinkedIn invitations you send out and which ones you accept. I have to have met my connections in person or have done work with them by phone and email. I will sometimes accept an invitation from someone who has reached out and would be good for me to know. But I make myself get to know them.

In fact, as I write this I’m looking at my calendar at the call I have scheduled for later in the day with someone who reached out to me on LinkedIn. We know several people in common, and her business is one I want to know more about. I accepted her invite to connect and messaged her that I’d like to set up a “get to know you” call. She thought that was a great idea. 

If you don’t know your connections, how can they refer work your way, write a recommendation, introduce you to a recruiter or potential business partner? They can’t. Likewise, you can’t help connections you “know” by name only. 

What to do if you have a bunch of connections you don’t really know? I recommend sending out a couple messages a month asking for time to connect by phone over coffee.

Check in often

Next up, you want to check LinkedIn often. It doesn’t have to be every day. A few times a week is great, and it really takes just minutes or even seconds. Here are some easy LinkedIn activities that if done regularly will yield returns in terms of keeping your name top of mind for your connections and helping you to spot opportunities and know what’s going on within your network.

1. Scroll through your news feed.

See what your connections are posting. Maybe it’s announcing a job promotion. Give that a thumbs up. Maybe someone posted an article about their industry or yours. Give that a read consider sharing it.

2. Congratulate people for their work anniversaries.

This is so easy. LinkedIn even has written the “congratulations” message for you, though I sometimes take a few seconds to customize the message.

3. Check your messages.

Speaking of messages, check yours. Often, when I am doing a LinkedIn profile makeover for clients, I see they haven’t checked their messages in months or more. You never know when someone might be reaching out via LinkedIn because they lost your email address or it was just more convenient for them at the time. They might be messaging about a prime opportunity, and you don’t want to miss out. 

4. Check your invitations to connect.

If you know the would-be connection or want to get to know the person, accept that invitation and make a plan to connect in real life.

5. Post an interesting article or status update.

If you have news about your work or an article about your industry that is noteworthy, share it so that you pop up in your connections’ news feeds. This again is about keeping your top of mind among your connections. 

LinkedIn is about knowing your connections and paying attention to what’s going on with them. It’s about letting your connections know what’s up with you. And it takes just a minimal investment of time. Let’s say a few minutes a day a few days every week. Put it on your calendar until it becomes routine.

Inc. This Morning: The California Wildfires, Morale at Facebook, and That Time Elon Musk Gave Out Credit Cards to Anyone Who Asked

Inc. This Morning delivers a daily email digest of the news curated for anyone interested in entrepreneurship. Want this email in your inbox every day? Sign up here.

As of this morning, 48 people are confirmed dead, 200 are missing, and at least 200,000 have had to flee their homes as a result of the California wildfires. It’s a truly horrific tragedy. 

You’ve probably seen some of the heart-stopping video of the twin infernos. Even as firefighters continue the battle to contain the damage, people are starting to wonder how they’ll rebuild. Among them, the business owners California will be counting on to jumpstart the local economy.

One example: Jim Murphy, founder and CEO of BroadVoice, a California company that provides VoIP phone services, who is covering hotel expenses for employees displaced by the fires (and whose family has also evacuated).

“It’s definitely difficult, but I am very thankful for what I have and that everyone is safe. You have to look at the bright side and realize that things could be a lot worse,” Murphy (no relation to me) told Inc.

Here’s what else I’m reading today.

Facebook morale plummets

Just over half of Facebook employees say they’re optimistic about the company’s future, down from over 80 percent a year ago, after the company has been battered and seen its stock price drop hard over the last 10 months. A year ago, 72 percent of employees said they thought Facebook made the world a better place; now it’s just 53 percent.
–Deepa Seetharaman, The Wall Street Journal

The decline of Victoria’s Secret

The CEO of Victoria’s Secret is stepping down, a week after the company’s latest fashion show got terrible reviews, and its top marketing official was quoted gratuitously putting down transgender models. Meanwhile, the company’s market share and stock price have nose-dived, and its most successful competitors are hard-driving startups that see blood in the water.
–Hema Parmar, Bloomberg

That time Elon Musk just gave out credit cards to anyone who asked

Elon Musk. Some say he’s a genius. Some say he’s overstretched. But nobody can say he’s afraid of risk. His former business partner at PayPal Peter Thiel made that point when he talked about how Musk once successfully advocated for his company to grant credit cards with a $10,000 credit limit to literally anyone who asked. It was a disaster Thiel recalled, and they shut it down quickly, but it demonstrated how entrepreneurs have to be willing to take risks–and then manage them effectively.
–Sarah Todd, Quartz

Your people use Uber. They should probably sign up.

After literally years of people suggesting and asking for this, Uber rolled out a rewards program Wednesday that will give significant benefits to its most loyal customers (just ahead of its expected IPO, we might add). The program starts in nine cities including New York and Washington, D.C., and gives rewards members dedicated phone support, upgrades, and priority for the highest-rated drivers. They say there will be other benefits too, rolled out over the next few months.
–Deirdre Bosa and Paayal Zaveri, CNBC

Hmmm, this seems safe.

A small business in Wisconsin says it’s buying an unusual Christmas gift for each of its 16 employees: a revolver. That’s their right, and the Second Amendment is the law of the land, but they also admit that some of their employees have never fired a weapon in their lives–and presumably aren’t asking for this. What could possibly go wrong?
–Chris Mueller, The Appleton Post-Crescent

GE Will Split Up: Here Is A Sum Of The Parts

In the past General Electric (NYSE:GE), like most companies was valued based on earnings or cash flow. However, the former and current CEOs have stated significant portions of the company will be sold, spun-off or monetized in other ways. That indicates the best way to value the company now is a sum of the parts.

This calculation has been recently done by others, though in the case of stock analysts, the actual calculation is not available to the public.

On October 9, 2018, Nicholas Heymann of William Blair determined a sum of the parts valuation of $14.60 to $16.78 per share.

On June 27, 2018, Seeking Alpha’s DoctorRx determined a sum of the parts value of at least $18 per share, before further deterioration.

Here is my market value analysis by segment:

Aviation

The aviation segment, which focuses on jet engines, is the crown jewel. Like Amazon Web Services to Amazon, it is probably worth at least half of all of GE. Revenues are growing 10% per year. What is particularly inviting to investors is future revenues are very predictable due to a huge backlog that goes well into the future. Investors love predictable income streams. The Aviation segment had revenues of $22.1 billion in the first nine months of 2018 and operating income of $4.74 billion. Annualized operating income is $6.32 billion. Less 20% for taxes, net income is $5.06 billion. To determine a proper PE ratio, GE aviation was compared to other large aerospace companies.

Sources: Value Line, Yahoo Finance and forms 10-Q.

As shown above, the aerospace industry gets an above average PE ratio, despite below average revenue growth. I attribute this to the huge backlogs which allows investors visibility well into the future, unlike most other industries. HEICO appears to be an outlier. Excluding HEICO, the peer trailing PE ratio is 21.9. GE aviation has a 10% revenue growth rate, significantly above peer average. Boeing, its largest customer, is the best comparable. Based on the comparables, especially Boeing, I believe a PE ratio of 25 is appropriate. With a post-tax annualized earnings of $5.06 billion, the value of GE aviation is $126.5 billion.

Power

GE Power along with lighting is one of GE original businesses. In fact, GE essentially invented this business. Until recently it was GE’s largest business. GE Power had revenues of $20.5 billion in the first nine months of 2018, and $5.7 billion in the last quarter. Revenues were down 21% year to date and 33% in the last quarter. This division lost $631 million in the last quarter and made $64 million for the year. This segment is one of the main reasons it is difficult to value GE based on a PE ratio right now. This is a large business that still has lots of value but is currently reducing overall earnings. That means it is reducing market value if you use a PE ratio, when in fact it still adds to value.

This segment is hard to value as it has no pure play competitors. Siemans is in this business. Its segment in power had revenues of 3.64 billion euros in the fiscal year ended September 30, 2018, down 8% from a year earlier. This confirms that GE’s problems are industrywide not specific to GE. However, Siemans revenue decline was much less than GE’s. Siemans is not a good comparable for value as the power division is only about 12% of the total.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (OTCPK:MHVYF) is probably the closest to a pure play. It had revenues of $36.1 billion last fiscal year ended March, 2018. The stock currently trades at 36.5% of that. GE Power has historically had a profit margin 3-4 times higher than Mitsubishi.

For other comparables, I looked for industrial companies that have declining sales and earnings.

Sources: Value Line, Yahoo Finance and forms 10-Q.

All three shown above are industrial companies or construction companies. Briggs & Stratton is a small engine company that is facing increased competition from lower cost overseas companies. Flowserve and Fluor are diversified but have a lot of exposure to the oil and gas industry. Fluor is a construction company. These routinely have lower profit margins and lower price to sales than average. GE Power has underperformed all three recently but has more recurring revenue by far. Based on Mitsubishi, Briggs & Stratton and Fluor I estimate GE Power to be worth 40% of revenues. I placed it a bit higher than those three due to close to 50% of GE Powers revenue currently from recurring service contracts. Revenues totaled $20.5 billion in the first nine months of this year. Assuming the fourth quarter is the same as the third, annualized sales are $26.3 billion and market value is $10.5 billion.

A second methodology was used based on earnings power. GE Power earned between $4 to $5 billion in operating income during 2013-2016 with operating profit margins of 13-16%. That indicates earnings power is much higher than what is happening today. This industry is facing a secular headwind from renewable power and may not be again what it was in that heyday. Assuming a new lower revenue rate of $25 billion, down from $36.8 billion in 2016, and an operating profit margin of 12%, operating profit potential is $3 billion a year. That is $2.4 billion after a 20% tax. If business is permanently reduced, then GE will right size the company to get to this profit margin. However, that will take time. Based on the time needed to right size and the revenue decline a PE ratio of 8 is currently appropriate. That values the segment at $19.2 billion.

The two methodologies I used show very different values. Putting a two thirds weight on the comparables, my market value for GE Power is $13.4 billion.

Wabtec

GE is selling its transportation division to Wabtec for $2.9 billion in cash plus 50% of Wabtec stock. Wabtec had a market cap of $8.14 billion on November 13, 2018. This indicates GE’s portion is worth the same, plus the cash. GE sold this business at what appears to be a cyclical low in the industry. While not good for GE now, it bodes well for the future.

Healthcare

Healthcare revenues were $14.38 billion for the first nine months of 2018, up 5.0% from one year earlier. Operating income was $2.52 billion over that period, up 8.0%. However, revenues and earnings stalled in the most recent quarter. Operating income is $3.36 billion annualized and $2.68 billion after assuming a 20% income tax rate. The Healthcare segment when spun off is expected to carry a projected $18 billion of debt, including pension obligations.

The comparables used below are large healthcare equipment companies. Those with significant acquisitions were excluded.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) deserves a lower PE because a lot of its revenues come from drugs with patent expirations. It also has lower growth. Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX) and Stryker (NYSE:SYK) have better revenue and earnings growth. Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) is probably the best comparable. Though its product line is different, the growth profile and size is similar. Based on the comparables, a PE ratio of 19 is determined. This puts market value of $50.92 billion.

Renewable Power

This segment primarily deals with wind power. The best comparable is Vestas (OTCPK:VWDRY) which is a pure play in this field and the largest player. Vestas had revenues of 6.77 billion Euros in the first nine months of 2018, down 1% from the prior year. Net profit was 464 million Euros for a 6.8% profit margin. It currently has a market cap of $12.8 billion euros for an annualized PE ratio of 20.7. GE’s Renewable Power segment is much less profitable. Revenues totaled $6.71 billion for the first nine months of 2018 with an operating profit of $220 million. The profit margin is less than half that of Vestas after taxes. Vestas trades at 1.42x sales. GE with half the profit margin should trade at about half Vestas price to sales. That puts the market cap at $6.35 billion. However, being in the exact same business, a premium needs to be given to GE Renewable Power as it has more upside than Vestas which is currently maximizing profits better. My estimate for GE Renewable Power is $7.5 billion.

Baker Hughes

This one is quite simple. GE owns 62.5% of Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHGE) and is in the process of selling down to a 50% ownership. Baker Hughes is publicly traded currently and had a market cap of $26.53 billion on November 13, 2018. GE’s portion is $16.58 billion.

Lighting

GE Lighting is for sale. It had revenues of $1.27 billion for the first nine months of 2018, down 10% from the prior year. Operating earnings were $52 million, up 27% over the same period. Lighting is a struggling industry right now due to declining pricing and most competitors are also struggling. Acuity is a pure play and also the largest lighting company in the U.S. It currently trades at a trailing PE ratio of 14. Acuity has a better profit margin and better growth than GE Lighting. Revenue growth has averaged 9% over the past three years, though its now closer to 4%. Based on Acuity, a PE ratio of 12 is appropriate for GE Lighting. After a 20% income tax, that puts market value at $832 million.

GE Capital

GE Capital is primarily comprised of by revenues of; aircraft finance 48%, insurance 28%, energy financial services 12%, industrial and other 12%. This segment lost $106 million from continuing operations in the first 9 months of 2018. The insurance portion is primarily long term care insurance. This insurance is no longer offered by many former providers due to increasing losses. Earnings in each segment are not broken out. So a comparison using a PE ratio or cash flow is not available. Many financial companies are valued in part by book value. Tangible book value of GE Capital was $9.00 billion on September 30, 2018. GE has agreed with regulators to pump $11 billion into its insurance subsidiaries through 2024, due to long term care losses. That is $2.2 billion per year. Discounted at 5% (their long term bond rate), the present value is $9.5 billion. This exceeds tangible book value. For this reason, I assume no value for GE Capital.

Market Value: Sum of the Parts

Values were determined above pus liabilities and other assets are totaled below.

Sources: Calculations above; September 2018 10-Q.

Based on a sum of the parts, GE is worth $16.35 per share. This is similar to the recent William Blair calculation. As a general rule, companies trade at a discount to a sum of their parts, especially conglomerates. This is partially offset by the fact the GE is dividing itself up with plans to spinoff Healthcare, sell lighting, and sell part of transportation and Baker Hughes. Since GE is in the process of monetizing large portions of its business, a 15% discount is assumed, versus larger discounts usually used. That puts current value at $13.90.

The important thing to note is that only parts of GE are struggling. The aviation segment alone is worth over half of the market value and is doing very well. In my opinion, the stock is down for two primary reasons. They are; an avalanche of bad news over the past year and the dividend cut. The dividend cut specifically is causing dividend investors to sell and temporarily putting further downward pressure on the price. GE used to be a dividend investors staple so the exodus will be significant. It should also be noted there is a new sheriff in town and sale and spinoff plans could change.

I recommend a long position in GE with a price target of $13.90.

Disclosure: I am/we are long GE.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Silicon Valley's Culture of Secrecy Hides Sexual Harassment. Google and Facebook Just Changed It

When an estimated 20 percent of Google’s global work force walked off the job this month in protest of the company’s handling of sexual harassment, they had several demands. But the first one was this: an end to forced arbitration–the agreement employees signed that obliges them to settle sexual harassment and discrimination claims in front of a private arbitrator rather than in court.

Last week, Google announced that it was ending that policy. It also ended the policy that forbade sexual harassment victims from bringing a companion or representative for support when discussing their complaints with HR–another change protesters demanded.

The following day, Facebook, which had a similar policy–that it defended as “official and appropriate” last year–announced that it was ending its forced arbitration policy as well. Microsoft, Uber, and Lyft all ended similar policies in the past year. But Google and Facebook’s changes are significant, not only because they are “FAANG” companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google), the most high-profile companies in Silicon Valley, but also because both are companies that have traditionally been very careful–almost fanatical–about keeping nearly everything they do confidential, a practice that goes way beyond new product ideas and designs and also covers internal policies, aspects of corporate culture, and much more.

Based on the dramatic success of these companies, it might be that keeping everything secret is good for the bottom line, at least for a while. But that culture of secrecy, which pervades Silicon Valley and Corporate America in general, allows employers to ignore the fact that they have an overwhelmingly white male workforce. They can also hide behind secrecy to avoid publicly disciplining powerful men who sexually harass or assault women–something The New York Times made very clear in a scathing exposé of Google that touched off the protests.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai first responded to the article by sending out a memo that said Google had fired 48 executives because of harassment complaints and had lots of resources in place to help victims of sexual harassment. When that clearly wasn’t good enough, he sent out a second memo that apologized and promised to support the protesters. In that second memo, he said Google would change its ways but stopped short of acquiescing to any of the protesters’ specific demands. Given the company’s longstanding practice of keeping nearly everything confidential, it’s easy to see why he didn’t want to.

17,000 unhappy employees.

But. Seventeen thousand employees reportedly walked off the job during the protests and even for Google, that’s a lot of people. Pichai must have decided it was better to make some big changes than risk alienating a large portion of its workforce. Most likely, his biggest fear is not further protests but the loss of Google’s cachet as a wonderful, enlightened workplace–something that helps the company tremendously when it comes to fighting for high-tech talent. Facebook is a rival employer which is almost certainly why that equally secretive company announced its policy change 24 hours later.

The protest’s organizers point out that, while the changes amount to real progress, Google is still ignoring some of their demands–particularly those that would systemically increase Google’s diversity and change its culture rather than just deal more fairly with sexual harassment. Among those further demands: That the chief diversity officer report directly to Pichai; that Google make a real commitment to greater diversity in its workforce; that an employee representative be added to the board; and that Google take concrete steps to end the persistent pay gap between men and women.

Even so, Google and Facebook’s changes are a very, very big deal. As The Wall Street Journal noted, forced arbitration remains the norm in U.S. companies large and small, and one study found that more than half of American employees are bound by arbitration agreements. But in the high-tech industry, they’re disappearing fast. Airbnb and eBay are the latest to confirm that they are ending their forced arbitration policies. And some companies, including Pinterest, Oath (the newly combined Yahoo and AOL, owned by Verizon), Twitter, and Reddit are proud to say they never had them.

If this trend continues throughout the tech industry, employers who keep demanding them may start losing talent–especially female talent–to those with more enlightened policies. In other words, it looks like Silicon Valley may be doing what it’s done so many times before–disrupting an outdated model that should have gone away long ago.

Japan's SoftBank steps closer to transformation with $21 billion mobile IPO

TOKYO (Reuters) – SoftBank Group Corp’s (9984.T) domestic telecoms unit on Monday received approval to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange through one of the biggest-ever initial public offerings (IPO) at 2.4 trillion yen ($21.04 billion), a regulatory filing showed.

A journalist raises her hand to ask a question to Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp Chief Executive Masayoshi Son during a news conference in Tokyo, Japan, November 5, 2018. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

The unit, SoftBank Corp, will list on Dec. 19, the filing with the Ministry of Finance showed.

The IPO will mark the transformation of the parent from a mobile phone network provider – which successfully challenged Japan’s incumbent duopoly – into one of the world’s biggest technology investors under Chief Executive Masayoshi Son.

The offering will provide the group with even more funds that can be deployed into global tech investments. SoftBank’s bets so far have been as varied as small gaming startups, ride-hailing firms such as Uber Technologies Inc [UBER.UL], and e-commerce behemoth Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA.N).

On sale is 1.6 billion SoftBank Corp shares at an tentative price of 1,500 yen each, raising 2.4 trillion yen. The unit will have a market value of 7.18 trillion yen upon listing.

Additionally, up to 160 million shares worth 240.6 billion yen will be offered in an overallotment if demand is strong. In that case, the total would come close to the $25 billion worth of shares sold by Alibaba in 2014 in the biggest-ever IPO.

The parent will retain a stake of around two-thirds, depending on the overallotment.

The final IPO price will be determined on Dec. 10.

The mammoth offering comes at a time when investors have begun questioning the outlook for Japan’s telecoms companies.

The IPO was initially expected to appeal to investors seeking stability, but the government has recently called on carriers to lower fees while backing more wireless competition, sending shockwaves through the industry.

Yet SoftBank’s brand name is still likely to draw retail investors who grew up using SoftBank’s phone and internet services. Many still see CEO Son as a tech visionary who challenged entrenched rivals NTT DoCoMo Inc (9437.T) and KDDI Corp (9433.T) and brought Apple Inc’s (AAPL.O) iPhone to Japan.

“I think a reasonable amount of money will be attracted to this one,” said Tetsutaro Abe, an equity research analyst at Aizawa Securities. “It’s a mobile company so the cash flow is steady. If you think about future yield and shareholder returns, it’s a far more attractive investment than government bonds.”

Nomura, Mizuho, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and SMBC Nikko are joint global coordinators for the IPO.

Reporting by Taiga Uranaka; Additional reporting by Kentaro Sugiyama, Sam Nussey, Chris Gallagher and Ran Kim; Writing by Ritsuko Ando; Editing by Christopher Cushing

French minister Le Maire insists EU is close to digital tax deal

FILE PHOTO: French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire speaks on tax issues at a joint hearing with lawmakers of the economic affairs committee and the special committee on financial crime at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, October 23, 2018. REUTERS/Vincent Kessler

PARIS (Reuters) – French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Monday that a European Union plan to tax big internet firms such as Google and Facebook was close to being struck, despite several EU governments having pushed back against the idea.

“We are close to having a deal in our hands,” Le Maire told France Inter radio. He said he was confident the German government would help France reach an agreement with other member states.

Last week Germany, which initially had backed the plan, urged some changes. France wants to strike a deal by December.

Reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta; editing by Richard Lough

Top 7 Brand Disasters of 2018 and They're All from the Airlines

Every year, I chronicle the brand disasters and brand scandals that did the most damage in the recent months. Previous years have drawn from multiple industries but in 2018 it’s all about the airlines. Here’s the worst of the worst:

1. Bow-Ow (United)

A French bulldog died in April when a United Airlines flight attendant insisted that his owner stow the animal in an overhead bin. The airline tried to position it as a regrettable but unusual mistake. Then the Washington Post pointed out that 75% of all airline animal deaths occur on United Flights. Oof.

2. Deep Doo-Doo (Delta)

Airplanes are not known for their fresh scent but a Delta passenger in October, after smelling something funky, reached under his seat to discover the digested outcome of either an incontinent service animal or a sick old man (depending on the story). According to the Washington Post, rather than have the flight cleaned, they handed HIM some paper towels and a mini-bottle of gin.

3. Whoops, Your Bias is Showing (Delta)

Well-regarded obstetrician and gynecologist Tamika Cross (who happens to be a black female) volunteered to help an unconscious passenger on an October Delta flight. According to the Washington Post, she dismissively told “Oh no, sweetie, put [your] hand down, we are looking for actual physicians or nurses or some type of medical personnel, we don’t have time to talk to you.”

4. Staycation (American)

When a big airline cancels a flight, they typically book the stranded passengers on other flights, even if those flights are on other airlines. In October, however, The Detroit News reported that American Airlines now directs its booking agents to avoid using other airlines unless the passenger is going to a funeral, a wedding or would be forced to stay overnight in a hotel.

5. Race to the Bottom (Ryanair)

You’d think that after a passenger starts screaming racist slurs at another passenger, an airline would 1) intervene and 2) throw the racist off the flight. However, as The Guardian reported in October, bargain-basement Ryanair elected instead to move the victim to another seat and pretend it never happened. Needless to say, some passengers videoed and posted the October incident.

6. Abracadabra (Primera Air)

While one might expect to see a disappearing act during a stage revue, at an airport not so much. But that’s what happened when Primera Air announced they were out of money and “poof” all their scheduled flights suddenly disappeared in October. As the New York Times reported, even the gate agents didn’t have a clue as to what had just happened.

7. Class Acts (American, Delta, Southwest, United)

Things looked pretty bad for the industry as a whole when Forbes reported that “airlines failed to deliver nearly a third of their customers to their desired destinations at, or even reasonably close to their scheduled arrival times.” Then November saw a class action lawsuit filed against American, Delta, Southwest, and United for alleged price-fixing.

The Afrotech Conference Captured in One Powerful Quote

One of the biggest discussions came from a Grammy-award winning panel featuring rapper Common, producer Karriem Riggins and musician Robert Glasper, collaborators in the new supergroup August Greene. All of them had outgrown their defining monikers, expanding into acting, music scoring, and so on. Glasper shared his own key to success:

Other people don’t know what your lane is, so they can’t tell you what your lane isn’t.

Sure, it’s about defining yourself and not relying on the acceptance of others. It also means not being afraid to fail until you get it right – even while others are watching. This challenge becomes more important for minority entrepreneurs who may have a vision less understood by the mainstream public.

What is uniquely yours?

I recently interviewed TED Speaker and RETI founder DeAndrea Salvador. She wasn’t focused on engineering, but she saw a need in her community for fair energy use and distribution. That desire planted the seed for RETI, the energy equity company that now educates and spreads insight into low-income communities.

Get comfortable with being a fool

As Glasper mentions, your lane is only defined by you – and, often, is defined by only your own insecurities.  So, the ability to be comfortable with being uncomfortable directly dictates your ability to grow.

Serial entrepreneur Naveen Jain said it recently: When you don’t know, you can ask dumb questions.” And dumb questions allow true breakthroughs. Sitting with Glasper and Riggins, Common shared how coming from a hip-hop background actually helped him make an impact on Hollywood, as he didn’t automatically follow the traditional Hollywood rules or pathway. Instead, he questioned long-held beliefs and was able to bypass the classic barriers to success.

So pay attention when a new arena is calling you. It may not be your lane, but it may be the area where you can make an even deeper impact.